Entering a new year is a time to look back for lessons learned and forward for what’s next.
In the world of politics, this means looking back at how Democrats got where they are and looking ahead to where Republicans, the “in” party, may end up in November’s midterm elections.
After Democrats lost the White House and Congress in 2024, party leaders commissioned an autopsy of the election. It was recently completed — and promptly buried. It must have been hair-raising.
If Democrats won’t face their own reality and tell you what led to their defeat, I will.
First, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. By 2024, voters had concluded Biden was unfit to continue as president. His policies were unpopular, and his disastrous debate performance made a loss to Donald Trump look likely. Democrats panicked; they pushed Biden aside at the eleventh hour and slated a new nominee, Kamala Harris.
Plenty of voters were relieved they didn’t have to choose between Biden and Trump, a matchup they dreaded. But they were also unsettled by how Biden’s campaign ended and how Harris took his place — without primaries, caucuses or debates. It didn’t feel right.
As vice president, Harris was chained to the administration’s record. Her own inability to defend that record — and, when need be, to distance herself from it — ultimately sunk her candidacy. She now blames lack of time as the reason she lost. She’s wrong, of course — lack of time actually helped her. Wonder what the autopsy says about that?
Second, Democrats went too far during the early years of Biden’s presidency. Political analyst and Shreveport native Charlie Cook, a longtime friend, says the Democratic Party was “tone deaf” after it won in 2020: “Biden and his team committed a political cardinal sin — misreading their election and presuming a mandate when none existed...Decisions were made that planted the seeds of (their 2024) loss.”
Democrats allowed themselves to become the party of political correctness, open borders and soft-on-crime policies. They underestimated the risk of being perceived as the cradle of woke — handing Republicans a club that they used to beat them unmercifully.
Third, the big, ugly status quo. Americans wanted change in 2024. Exit polling showed that more than two-thirds viewed economic conditions negatively, and Trump won 70% of them. Another 73% said they were dissatisfied or angry with the way things were going in the country, and Trump won 62% of them.
You don’t need much of an autopsy to see that Democrats were on the wrong side of these numbers.
Looking toward this year’s midterm elections, Republicans are now riding the back of that angry tiger called status quo. If things go well, they’ll benefit; if not, they’ll be eaten by it. Their success or failure depends upon Trump. Republican candidates are so tightly linked to the president that they will have little room to pivot away if needed.
To face this new reality, Republicans have two things to watch:
First, the warning signs. In 2025, Republicans lost governorships in Virginia and New Jersey by bigger margins than expected. They dropped 13 seats in Virginia’s House of Delegates and five seats in New Jersey’s General Assembly. They lost California’s closely watched redistricting referendum (by a landslide), along with key down-ballot races in Pennsylvania and Georgia.
New polling from the Economist/YouGov shows that only 27% of independents — those voters who often swing close elections — have a positive opinion of Trump.
Second, public concern about national conditions. The latest Quinnipiac poll finds that solid voter majorities disapprove of Trump’s handling of big-ticket issues: 59% on health care, 57% on the economy, 55% on deportations, 55% on trade and 54% on foreign policy. Polls on the cost of living and the Epstein files are even more sour.
This is why Republicans, on average, are currently losing by four points when voters are asked which party they prefer to control Congress.
When President Franklin Roosevelt asked his vice president, John Nance Garner, for his assessment of how his plan to pack the Supreme Court was doing in Congress, the crusty Garner puffed on a cigar and asked his boss, “You want it with the bark on or off?” FDR replied, “The rough way.” Said Garner, “You’re beat.”
The party that assesses its weaknesses the rough way, and acts quickly and wisely, won’t have to do an autopsy later.