If Republicans hold Congress in November, it may be a bigger defeat for Democrats than a win for Republicans. That’s because it would confirm the status quo, and the status quo on Capitol Hill is President Donald Trump’s continued dominance.
The pressure is on the Democrats. They need to show that Trump’s 57% voter disapproval rating translates into votes for their side, especially in open seats and those now held by Republicans. Winning close Senate races in four states — Maine, Michigan, Alaska and Ohio — would reinforce the notion that the Trump era is nearing its end.
Here are the playing fields.
Maine. Republican Sen. Susan Collins, 73, is chasing a sixth term in a race that keeps changing. Maine has voted Democratic for president since 1992, yet Collins has a record of outperforming the state’s blue tilt.
Going into this election, Collins’ center-right brand was alienating voters on both left and right; she was looking like a sure casualty of the deeply polarized political environment. Then her Democratic opponent imploded. Populist oyster farmer Graham Platner, 41, had been surging, especially with younger and progressive voters, before allegations of abusing women forced him from the race. Democrats quickly united around Troy Jackson, 58, a former state Senate president.
Handicappers are split between toss-up and close calls for both sides. A University of New Hampshire poll shows Jackson narrowly ahead, 49% to 46%.
Michigan. Trump carried the state twice by slim margins, but Republicans haven’t won a Senate seat here in 32 years.
With Democratic Sen. Gary Peters retiring, Republicans have nominated former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, 63, who lost a Senate race in 2024 by just three-tenths of a point.
Michigan Democrats are waging one of the year’s hottest primary battles for a Senate seat: U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, 43, versus Abdul El-Sayed, 41, an epidemiologist, former Wayne County health director and 2018 gubernatorial candidate. It’s a fierce test of the party’s establishment wing (Stevens) versus its progressive wing (El-Sayed).
El-Sayed is backed by Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Elizabeth Warren. Stevens is backed by incumbent Peters, Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer and a raft of former statewide officials. Polls are volatile. The primary is Aug.4 and both sides are busy juicing voter turnout.
Alaska. It’s a solid Republican state — except when it’s not. Alaska voted for Republican presidential candidates in every election since 1968, although a Democrat won a Senate seat in 2008; a Republican incumbent who lost the GOP Senate primary won a write-in campaign in 2010; and a Democrat flipped the state’s at-large U.S. House seat in 2022.
Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, 61, is seeking a third term against Democrat Mary Peltola, 52, a former U.S. representative who beat Sarah Palin for the state’s at-large House seat four years ago.
Alaska’s nonpartisan primary is Aug. 18; the top four candidates, regardless of party, advance to a ranked-choice general election in November. That system invites surprises — and maybe mischief. Case in point: Another Republican named Dan Sullivan jumped into the race, forcing Sullivan the senator to guard against mistaken voting.
Alaska is a must-win for Democrats now that Maine is wobbly and Michigan’s primary contest has party strategists worried.
Ohio. Once considered the quintessential swing state, Trump turned Ohio red, winning it three times. However, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, 73, who lost reelection in 2024, has a chance to make a comeback this year. The Republican nominee is Sen. Jon Husted, 58, who was appointed to the seat when former Sen. JD Vance became vice president.
While Brown’s populism fits the current mood among Democrats, swing voters may see him as yesterday’s news. Election handicappers predict a close race.
Husted knows how to win elections in Ohio: state House, state Senate, secretary of state and lieutenant governor. But Trump’s job rating in the state is upside down — 44% approve, 54% disapprove — and that complicates life for Husted, who has the president’s endorsement.
The New York Times/Siena poll has Husted ahead by three points. Other polls have had Brown ahead. A Democratic victory would signal an eroding red-state base.
These surely aren’t the only Senate races to watch; another three or four could be barnburners. But these four, more than most, will determine which party controls the Senate.